My dissertation, titled “The Economics of Grain Deficits: On-Farm Storage and Spatial Price Transmission in North Carolina,” focused on the economics of investing in and operating on-farm storage for corn and soybeans in North Carolina. In addition to the financial benefits of post-harvest returns from storage, I considered the impact of improved harvest logistics amid congested delivery points and reduced risk of tropical storm-driven yield losses. I also examined the spatial price relationship between North Carolina and strategic origin locations in the U.S. Midwest, with applications to procurement strategies and hedging decisions in rail-dependent grain-consuming regions.

1. On-Farm Storage in Grain Deficit Regions: Profitability, Heterogeneity, and Tropical Storm Risk

   (with Nicholas Piggott) - Under Review at the Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics

   Abstract: Research on on-farm grain storage has emphasized its role in enhancing profitability, reducing price risk, and improving harvest logistics. However, most studies assume homogeneous producers and fixed storage costs, overlooking variability in real-world operations. This study examines how heterogeneity in physical storage costs, climates, and local market conditions affects the profitability of corn and soybean storage across six locations in North Carolina. Using expert panel data, we estimate facility investment costs and simulate on-farm storage strategies based on cost structures and operator decisions, applying a straightforward grain storage decision rule to estimate annual net returns. Results show economies of scale in investment costs and demonstrate that annual net returns are strongly influenced by cost heterogeneity, regional climates, and infrastructure, underscoring their importance when evaluating on-farm storage investments. We evaluate the profitability of on-farm storage investments using a moving block bootstrap procedure and find that, on average, on-farm storage investments yield positive Net Present Values (NPVs) for both crops. Soybean storage is consistently and statistically profitable, but corn storage returns are not statistically distinguishable from break-even because of higher per-bushel physical storage costs and fewer carry opportunities, indicating greater risk for corn storage.

   Link to Current Draft

2. A Time-Varying Model of Spatial Price Transmission in Grain Deficit Regions

   No current draft. See Chapter 3 of the attached dissertation.

1. What on-farm grain storage system is best for you?

   In Southeastern FarmPress by John Hart. “North Carolina State University Extension economist Nick Piggott assembled a panel of N.C. farmers to study on-farm storage profitability.”

2. Is On-Farm Storage Worth it in North Carolina?

   in The NC State Economist with Nicholas Piggott. Non-technical summary of the results from the research on on-farm storage investments in North Carolina.